The authors analyzed the likely market impacts of the GMP using a dynamic simulation model. The GMP was analyzed using a modified version of the Dairy Farm Structural Change Simulator first developed by Pagel (2005). The model is used to simulate a number of outcomes of interest under different assumptions about how the program is structured and about underlying market conditions. As mentioned above, the two key assumptions about the program are: • The value of the market access fee per cwt; • The allowable growth (percentage increase) in milk production for qualifying farms. The outcomes of different combinations of assumptions (called scenarios) are compared to one another to determine the likely impact of the refundable assessments program. The outcomes of particular interest include: 1) The value of the all-milk price over time and its average through 2014; 2) Variation in milk prices, as measured by the difference between the actual all-milk prices and a moving average of the all-milk price and by a cumulative indicator of milk price variation through 2014; 3) The value of the payment for qualified milk per cwt and per farm.