OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook: 2009-2018
Published : Jun 2009
Authors : Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development
The annual Agricultural Outlook report is prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The projections and assessments provided in this report are the result of close co–operation with national experts in OECD and some non-member countries, reflecting the combined knowledge and expertise of this wide group of collaborators. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD's Aglink and FAO‟s Cosimo models, facilitates consistency in the projections. The fully documented outlook database, including historical data and projections, is available through the OECD-FAO joint internet site www.agri-outlook.org. This report covers biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, and dairy products over the 2009-18 period. The market assessments are based on a set of underlying assumptions regarding macroeconomic factors, agricultural and trade policies and production technologies. They also assume average weather conditions and long-term productivity trends. The Agricultural Outlook presents a consistent view on the evolution of global agricultural markets over the next decade and provides a baseline for further analysis of alternative economic or policy assumptions. In 2009, agricultural markets are characterised by a reduction in commodity prices following their rapid rise over the 2006-08 period. This report examines the general and commodity-specific factors behind the price declines. There is also a discussion on the evolution of retail food prices which have come down but not as quickly as international commodity prices, and with considerable regional variation. Looking forward, real commodity prices over the 2009-18 period are projected to remain at, or above, the 1997-2006 average. An expected economic recovery, renewed food demand growth from developing countries and the emerging biofuel markets are the key drivers underpinning agricultural commodity prices and markets over the medium term. This year‟s Outlook is set against a backdrop of unprecedented financial turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. With macroeconomic conditions changing so quickly, the standard baseline projections are complemented with a scenario analysis of revised short–term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. A sensitivity analysis of commodity markets to crude oil prices and a survey of the impact of the economic crisis on various actors in the agri-food chain also contribute to the report‟s timely assessment of the resiliency of the sector to the global economic crisis. The issue of food security is high on the political agenda as evidenced by the number of recent high-level summits, including the first ever G8 Agriculture Ministerial in April 2009. Much of the discussion is about the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food. Is there more land that can be brought into production? Can existing agriculture be more productive while becoming more environmentally sustainable? Will there be enough water? What will be the effects of climate change? This report provides a brief overview of several critical factors: land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change.

